U.S. Jobs & Labor Report: January 2024

While the U.S. labor market has cooled since the start of 2023, it enters 2024 on a strong footing. After avoiding a much-anticipated recession last year, the U.S. economy remains resilient, with unemployment near historical lows.

Morning Consult’s high-frequency labor market data also shows little sign for concern going into the new year. Our Lost Pay and Income Tracker remains near series lows, in line with low levels of initial unemployment insurance claims. Morning Consult data also shows that workers remain confident in their position, with a higher share of them saying they believe they could successfully negotiate for higher pay in December compared with the previous year.

This confidence comes despite a sharp decline in job openings and a slowing nominal wage growth — both of which are very welcome indicators for policymakers at the Federal Reserve, who are looking for signs that cooling the labor market will help relieve price pressures. With both workers and the Fed feeling optimistic, the stage is set for what seemed highly unlikely at the start of 2023: for the U.S. economy to achieve a soft landing.

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